Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
