Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
